Postmatch editorial

The script held and Finland delivered it

The final score was Finland 2-1 Lithuania. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Lithuania struck first through Pijus Sirvys 25', but Finland recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Finland led Shots on target 7-3. Finland also shaded Corners 5-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Finland the likeliest result at 47.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Finland at 64.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.2%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Finland

47.4%

Hit

Market result

Finland

64.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

51.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Finland

Finland

Lithuania

7

3

Corners

Finland

Finland

Lithuania

5

1

Total shots

Finland

Finland

Lithuania

11

8

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.