Postmatch editorial

Papua New Guinea flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Fiji 1-2 Papua New Guinea. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Fiji struck first through Ratu Waranaivalu 12', but Papua New Guinea recovered and flipped the match.

Before kickoff, our model made Fiji the likeliest result at 48.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Fiji at 48.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Sportingbet. The market was offering 3.90 against a fair line of 3.64. That translated to an edge of 7.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Fiji

48.5%

Miss

Market result

Fiji

48.3%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

52.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

No reliable match statistics were returned for this game.

Model edge

2

Sportingbet

Market odd

3.90

Fair odd

3.64

Edge

7.1%

Stake

0.51u

That ticket matched the final outcome.