FC Union Berlin
Werder Bremen won after full-time.
1 - 4
FT
Werder Bremen
Postmatch editorial
Werder Bremen found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was FC Union Berlin 1-4 Werder Bremen. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
FC Union Berlin struck first through Derrick Köhn 18', but Werder Bremen recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Werder Bremen led Shots on target 2-5. Werder Bremen also shaded Possession 26%-74%.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Union Berlin the likeliest result at 39.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Union Berlin at 41.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Union Berlin
39.8%
Market result
FC Union Berlin
41.6%
BTTS
Yes
53.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Werder BremenFC Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
2
5
Possession
Werder BremenFC Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
26%
74%
Corners
Werder BremenFC Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
1
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.