FC Union Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
VfL Wolfsburg
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was FC Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Patrick Wimmer put the first mark on the match 11', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Union Berlin led Total shots 25-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Union Berlin also shaded Shots on target 7-4.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Union Berlin the likeliest result at 45.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Union Berlin at 45.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.8%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Union Berlin
45.1%
Market result
FC Union Berlin
45.7%
BTTS
Yes
52.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
FC Union BerlinFC Union Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg
25
5
Shots on target
FC Union BerlinFC Union Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg
7
4
Corners
FC Union BerlinFC Union Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg
11
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.