Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was FC Union Berlin 1-1 St. Pauli. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

Mathias Pereira Lage put the first mark on the match 25', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Union Berlin led Shots on target 8-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Union Berlin also shaded Corners 7-2.

Before kickoff, our model made FC Union Berlin the likeliest result at 45.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Union Berlin at 49.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.9%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 2.27 against a fair line of 2.18. That translated to an edge of 4.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

FC Union Berlin

45.6%

Miss

Market result

FC Union Berlin

49.3%

Miss

BTTS

No

50.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

FC Union Berlin

FC Union Berlin

St. Pauli

8

2

Corners

FC Union Berlin

FC Union Berlin

St. Pauli

7

2

Total shots

FC Union Berlin

FC Union Berlin

St. Pauli

16

9

Model edge

1

Dafabet

Market odd

2.27

Fair odd

2.18

Edge

4.1%

Stake

0.80u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.