Postmatch editorial

Draw found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was FC Union Berlin 2-2 FC Köln. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The late equaliser came from Livan Burcu 89', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Köln led Corners 2-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Union Berlin also shaded Total shots 13-8.

Before kickoff, our model made FC Union Berlin the likeliest result at 36.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Köln at 38.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.3%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

FC Union Berlin

36.5%

Miss

Market result

FC Köln

38.2%

Miss

BTTS

No

52.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

FC Köln

FC Union Berlin

FC Köln

2

5

Total shots

FC Union Berlin

FC Union Berlin

FC Köln

13

8

Shots on target

FC Köln

FC Union Berlin

FC Köln

3

4

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.