FC Union Berlin
FC Union Berlin won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Postmatch editorial
FC Union Berlin flipped the prices on their head
The final score was FC Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Rani Khedira put the first mark on the match 28', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Union Berlin led Shots on target 4-1. Bayer 04 Leverkusen also shaded Total shots 8-16.
Before kickoff, our model made Bayer 04 Leverkusen the likeliest result at 46.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 42.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.5%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
46.4%
Market result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
42.6%
BTTS
Yes
50.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FC Union BerlinFC Union Berlin
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
4
1
Total shots
Bayer 04 LeverkusenFC Union Berlin
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
8
16
Possession
Bayer 04 LeverkusenFC Union Berlin
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
35%
65%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.