Postmatch editorial
FC Köln made the numbers look right
The final score was FC Köln 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Linton Maina put the first mark on the match 29', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: VfL Wolfsburg led Possession 42%-58%, even though the scoreboard went another way. VfL Wolfsburg also shaded Corners 3-4.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Köln the likeliest result at 45.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Köln at 49.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (62.5%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 2.19 against a fair line of 2.11. That translated to an edge of 3.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Köln
45.4%
Market result
FC Köln
49.1%
BTTS
Yes
62.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
VfL WolfsburgFC Köln
VfL Wolfsburg
42%
58%
Corners
VfL WolfsburgFC Köln
VfL Wolfsburg
3
4
Total shots
FC KölnFC Köln
VfL Wolfsburg
15
14
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
2.19
Fair odd
2.11
Edge
3.8%
Stake
0.82u
That ticket matched the final outcome.