FC Köln
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
TSG Hoffenheim
Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was FC Köln 2-2 TSG Hoffenheim. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Ragnar Ache put the first mark on the match 15', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: TSG Hoffenheim led Total shots 9-18, even though the scoreboard went another way. TSG Hoffenheim also shaded Corners 3-10.
Before kickoff, our model made TSG Hoffenheim the likeliest result at 40.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced TSG Hoffenheim at 47.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.5%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
TSG Hoffenheim
40.1%
Market result
TSG Hoffenheim
47.6%
BTTS
Yes
60.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
TSG HoffenheimFC Köln
TSG Hoffenheim
9
18
Corners
TSG HoffenheimFC Köln
TSG Hoffenheim
3
10
Shots on target
TSG HoffenheimFC Köln
TSG Hoffenheim
4
6
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.