FC Köln
Heidenheim won after full-time.
1 - 3
FT
Heidenheim
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was FC Köln 1-3 Heidenheim. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Jan Schöppner put the first mark on the match 8', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Köln led Possession 66%-34%, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Köln also shaded Total shots 18-11.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Köln the likeliest result at 45.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Köln at 48.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.5%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 4.15 against a fair line of 3.86. That translated to an edge of 7.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Köln
45.3%
Market result
FC Köln
48.9%
BTTS
Yes
60.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
FC KölnFC Köln
Heidenheim
66%
34%
Total shots
FC KölnFC Köln
Heidenheim
18
11
Shots on target
FC KölnFC Köln
Heidenheim
7
5
Model edge
2
Cloudbet
Market odd
4.15
Fair odd
3.86
Edge
7.5%
Stake
0.49u
That ticket matched the final outcome.