FC Köln
Borussia Dortmund won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Borussia Dortmund
Postmatch editorial
Borussia Dortmund turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was FC Köln 1-2 Borussia Dortmund. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Serhou Guirassy put the first mark on the match 16', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Köln led Corners 9-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Borussia Dortmund also shaded Possession 39%-61%.
Before kickoff, our model made Borussia Dortmund the likeliest result at 43.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Borussia Dortmund at 57.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.1%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Borussia Dortmund
43.9%
Market result
Borussia Dortmund
57.1%
BTTS
Yes
60.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
FC KölnFC Köln
Borussia Dortmund
9
4
Possession
Borussia DortmundFC Köln
Borussia Dortmund
39%
61%
Shots on target
Borussia DortmundFC Köln
Borussia Dortmund
4
5
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.