Postmatch editorial

Bayer 04 Leverkusen made the numbers look right

The final score was FC Köln 1-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Patrik Schick put the first mark on the match 43', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Köln led Shots on target 10-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Köln also shaded Total shots 25-8.

Before kickoff, our model made Bayer 04 Leverkusen the likeliest result at 48.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 51.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.0%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

48.6%

Hit

Market result

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

51.3%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

55.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

FC Köln

FC Köln

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

10

3

Total shots

FC Köln

FC Köln

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

25

8

Corners

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

FC Köln

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

2

5

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.