Postmatch editorial

Atlético Grau upset the pre-match prices

The final score was FC Cajamarca 1-3 Atlético Grau. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

FC Cajamarca struck first through Brandon Palacios 20', but Atlético Grau recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Cajamarca led Possession 59%-41%, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Cajamarca also shaded Total shots 20-15.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made FC Cajamarca the favourite at 46.5% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

FC Cajamarca

46.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

FC Cajamarca

FC Cajamarca

Atlético Grau

59%

41%

Total shots

FC Cajamarca

FC Cajamarca

Atlético Grau

20

15

Shots on target

FC Cajamarca

Atlético Grau

5

5