Postmatch editorial

FC Bayern München turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was FC Bayern München 4-2 VfB Stuttgart. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

VfB Stuttgart struck first through Chris Führich 21', but FC Bayern München recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Bayern München led Total shots 28-11. FC Bayern München also shaded Corners 11-3.

Before kickoff, our model made FC Bayern München the likeliest result at 64.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Bayern München at 67.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Interwetten. The market was offering 1.57 against a fair line of 1.53. That translated to an edge of 2.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

FC Bayern München

64.7%

Hit

Market result

FC Bayern München

67.6%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

58.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München

VfB Stuttgart

28

11

Corners

FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München

VfB Stuttgart

11

3

Possession

FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München

VfB Stuttgart

66%

34%

Model edge

1

Interwetten

Market odd

1.57

Fair odd

1.53

Edge

2.6%

Stake

1.27u

That ticket matched the final outcome.