FC Bayern München
Game ended in draw.
3 - 3
FT
Heidenheim
Postmatch editorial
The pre-match tension never quite broke
The final score was FC Bayern München 3-3 Heidenheim. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Michael Olise 90+10', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Bayern München led Possession 75%-25%, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Bayern München also shaded Total shots 23-12.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Bayern München the likeliest result at 82.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Bayern München at 78.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.9%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Interwetten. The market was offering 1.33 against a fair line of 1.31. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Bayern München
82.7%
Market result
FC Bayern München
78.7%
BTTS
No
55.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
FC Bayern MünchenFC Bayern München
Heidenheim
75%
25%
Total shots
FC Bayern MünchenFC Bayern München
Heidenheim
23
12
Corners
FC Bayern MünchenFC Bayern München
Heidenheim
13
5
Model edge
1
Interwetten
Market odd
1.33
Fair odd
1.31
Edge
1.5%
Stake
1.68u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.