Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was FC Bayern München 2-2 FSV Mainz 05. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Harry Kane 87', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Bayern München led Shots on target 11-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Bayern München also shaded Total shots 24-5.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Bayern München the likeliest result at 80.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Bayern München at 91.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.6%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.16 against a fair line of 1.15. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Bayern München
80.5%
Market result
FC Bayern München
91.7%
BTTS
No
57.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FC Bayern MünchenFC Bayern München
FSV Mainz 05
11
2
Total shots
FC Bayern MünchenFC Bayern München
FSV Mainz 05
24
5
Possession
FC Bayern MünchenFC Bayern München
FSV Mainz 05
85%
15%
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.16
Fair odd
1.15
Edge
0.9%
Stake
2.66u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.