FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München won after full-time.
4 - 0
FT
FC Union Berlin
Postmatch editorial
The script held and FC Bayern München delivered it
The final score was FC Bayern München 4-0 FC Union Berlin. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Michael Olise put the first mark on the match 43', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Bayern München led Shots on target 9-1. FC Bayern München also shaded Total shots 31-5.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Bayern München the likeliest result at 74.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Bayern München at 87.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.1%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Interwetten. The market was offering 1.20 against a fair line of 1.19. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Bayern München
74.0%
Market result
FC Bayern München
87.0%
BTTS
No
53.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FC Bayern MünchenFC Bayern München
FC Union Berlin
9
1
Total shots
FC Bayern MünchenFC Bayern München
FC Union Berlin
31
5
Corners
FC Bayern MünchenFC Bayern München
FC Union Berlin
12
1
Model edge
1
Interwetten
Market odd
1.20
Fair odd
1.19
Edge
0.8%
Stake
2.24u
That ticket matched the final outcome.