Postmatch editorial

FC Bayern München turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was FC Bayern München 5-1 FC Köln. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Nicolas Jackson scored 83' for FC Bayern München.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Bayern München led Shots on target 7-2. FC Bayern München also shaded Total shots 19-9.

Before kickoff, our model made FC Bayern München the likeliest result at 70.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Bayern München at 87.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.7%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Interwetten. The market was offering 1.22 against a fair line of 1.21. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

FC Bayern München

70.9%

Hit

Market result

FC Bayern München

87.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

50.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München

FC Köln

7

2

Total shots

FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München

FC Köln

19

9

Possession

FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München

FC Köln

69%

31%

Model edge

1

Interwetten

Market odd

1.22

Fair odd

1.21

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.13u

That ticket matched the final outcome.