FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München won after full-time.
3 - 2
FT
Eintracht Frankfurt
Postmatch editorial
FC Bayern München turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was FC Bayern München 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Aleksandar Pavlovic put the first mark on the match 16', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Bayern München led Shots on target 11-3. FC Bayern München also shaded Total shots 24-9.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Bayern München the likeliest result at 81.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Bayern München at 90.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.7%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Interwetten. The market was offering 1.17 against a fair line of 1.16. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Bayern München
81.3%
Market result
FC Bayern München
90.9%
BTTS
No
56.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FC Bayern MünchenFC Bayern München
Eintracht Frankfurt
11
3
Total shots
FC Bayern MünchenFC Bayern München
Eintracht Frankfurt
24
9
Corners
FC Bayern MünchenFC Bayern München
Eintracht Frankfurt
8
2
Model edge
1
Interwetten
Market odd
1.17
Fair odd
1.16
Edge
0.9%
Stake
2.49u
That ticket matched the final outcome.