FC Barcelona
FC Barcelona won after full-time.
4 - 1
FT
Villarreal
Postmatch editorial
FC Barcelona made the numbers look right
The final score was FC Barcelona 4-1 Villarreal. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Robert Lewandowski scored 90+1' for FC Barcelona.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Barcelona led Shots on target 8-1. FC Barcelona also shaded Total shots 19-6.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Barcelona the likeliest result at 73.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Barcelona at 72.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.8%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.43 against a fair line of 1.40. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Barcelona
73.5%
Market result
FC Barcelona
72.7%
BTTS
No
50.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FC BarcelonaFC Barcelona
Villarreal
8
1
Total shots
FC BarcelonaFC Barcelona
Villarreal
19
6
Possession
FC BarcelonaFC Barcelona
Villarreal
74%
26%
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.43
Fair odd
1.40
Edge
2.1%
Stake
1.43u
That ticket matched the final outcome.