Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was FC Augsburg 0-0 Werder Bremen. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Neither FC Augsburg nor Werder Bremen found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Augsburg led Shots on target 6-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Augsburg also shaded Total shots 14-9.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Augsburg the likeliest result at 40.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Augsburg at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (62.7%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 8.60 against a fair line of 7.72. That translated to an edge of 11.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Augsburg
40.9%
Market result
FC Augsburg
44.4%
BTTS
Yes
62.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
Werder Bremen
6
0
Total shots
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
Werder Bremen
14
9
Corners
Werder BremenFC Augsburg
Werder Bremen
6
11
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
8.60
Fair odd
7.72
Edge
11.4%
Stake
0.62u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.