FC Augsburg
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
TSG Hoffenheim
Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was FC Augsburg 2-2 TSG Hoffenheim. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Alexis Claude-Maurice put the first mark on the match 11', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Augsburg led Shots on target 8-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. TSG Hoffenheim also shaded Possession 34%-66%.
Before kickoff, our model made TSG Hoffenheim the likeliest result at 42.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced TSG Hoffenheim at 49.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.7%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
TSG Hoffenheim
42.0%
Market result
TSG Hoffenheim
49.5%
BTTS
Yes
56.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
TSG Hoffenheim
8
4
Possession
TSG HoffenheimFC Augsburg
TSG Hoffenheim
34%
66%
Total shots
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
TSG Hoffenheim
17
13
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.