Postmatch editorial
FC Augsburg made the numbers look right
The final score was FC Augsburg 2-1 St. Pauli. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
St. Pauli struck first through Danel Sinani 32', but FC Augsburg recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: St. Pauli led Total shots 12-17, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Augsburg also shaded Shots on target 6-5.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Augsburg the likeliest result at 45.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Augsburg at 46.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.1%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Augsburg
45.9%
Market result
FC Augsburg
46.9%
BTTS
No
52.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
St. PauliFC Augsburg
St. Pauli
12
17
Shots on target
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
St. Pauli
6
5
Possession
St. PauliFC Augsburg
St. Pauli
44%
56%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.