Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was FC Augsburg 1-1 FC Union Berlin. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Marin Ljubicic 90+1', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Augsburg led Shots on target 5-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Union Berlin also shaded Total shots 9-16.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Union Berlin the likeliest result at 41.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Augsburg at 38.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.3%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Union Berlin
41.8%
Market result
FC Augsburg
38.2%
BTTS
Yes
59.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
FC Union Berlin
5
3
Total shots
FC Union BerlinFC Augsburg
FC Union Berlin
9
16
Possession
FC Union BerlinFC Augsburg
FC Union Berlin
48%
52%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.