Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Gibraltar
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Faroe Islands delivered it
The final score was Faroe Islands 2-1 Gibraltar. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Gibraltar struck first through James Scanlon 23', but Faroe Islands recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Faroe Islands led Shots on target 5-1. Faroe Islands also shaded Total shots 22-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Faroe Islands the likeliest result at 61.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Faroe Islands at 79.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.4%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.29 against a fair line of 1.27. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Faroe Islands
61.0%
Market result
Faroe Islands
79.1%
BTTS
No
57.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Faroe IslandsFaroe Islands
Gibraltar
5
1
Total shots
Faroe IslandsFaroe Islands
Gibraltar
22
5
Possession
Faroe IslandsFaroe Islands
Gibraltar
73%
27%
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.29
Fair odd
1.27
Edge
1.6%
Stake
1.79u
That ticket matched the final outcome.