Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Czech Republic
Postmatch editorial
Faroe Islands bent the night away from the script
The final score was Faroe Islands 2-1 Czech Republic. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Martin Agnarsson scored 81' for Faroe Islands.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Faroe Islands led Shots on target 3-1. Czech Republic also shaded Corners 1-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Czech Republic the likeliest result at 53.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Czech Republic at 69.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.0%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.48 against a fair line of 1.45. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Czech Republic
53.6%
Market result
Czech Republic
69.9%
BTTS
Yes
53.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Faroe IslandsFaroe Islands
Czech Republic
3
1
Corners
Czech RepublicFaroe Islands
Czech Republic
1
7
Total shots
Czech RepublicFaroe Islands
Czech Republic
6
14
Model edge
2
Bet365
Market odd
1.48
Fair odd
1.45
Edge
2.1%
Stake
1.34u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.