Postmatch editorial

Sunderland found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Everton 1-3 Sunderland. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Everton struck first through Merlin Röhl 43', but Sunderland recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Everton led Shots on target 4-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Everton also shaded Total shots 10-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Everton the likeliest result at 37.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Everton at 54.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.5%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Everton

37.8%

Miss

Market result

Everton

54.1%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

50.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Everton

Everton

Sunderland

4

3

Total shots

Everton

Everton

Sunderland

10

7

Corners

Everton

Everton

Sunderland

3

2

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.