Postmatch editorial
Draw found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Everton 1-1 Leeds United. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Thierno Barry 76', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Leeds United led Shots on target 3-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Leeds United also shaded Total shots 10-14.
Before kickoff, our model made Leeds United the likeliest result at 38.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Everton at 40.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.4%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Leeds United
38.1%
Market result
Everton
40.0%
BTTS
No
50.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Leeds UnitedEverton
Leeds United
3
4
Total shots
Leeds UnitedEverton
Leeds United
10
14
Possession
EvertonEverton
Leeds United
58%
42%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.