Everton
Everton won after full-time.
3 - 0
FT
Chelsea
Postmatch editorial
Everton bent the night away from the script
The final score was Everton 3-0 Chelsea. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Iliman Ndiaye scored 76' for Everton.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Everton led Shots on target 9-4. Chelsea also shaded Corners 3-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Chelsea the likeliest result at 48.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Chelsea at 44.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.9%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Chelsea
48.0%
Market result
Chelsea
44.3%
BTTS
Yes
54.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
EvertonEverton
Chelsea
9
4
Corners
ChelseaEverton
Chelsea
3
9
Possession
ChelseaEverton
Chelsea
36%
64%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.