Postmatch editorial
Brentford flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Everton 2-4 Brentford. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Igor Thiago put the first mark on the match 11', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Everton led Total shots 14-11, even though the scoreboard went another way. Brentford also shaded Shots on target 6-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Everton the likeliest result at 41.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Everton at 40.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.7%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Everton
41.8%
Market result
Everton
40.3%
BTTS
Yes
54.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
EvertonEverton
Brentford
14
11
Shots on target
BrentfordEverton
Brentford
6
7
Possession
BrentfordEverton
Brentford
45%
55%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.