Postmatch editorial

Ethiopia settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Ethiopia 1-0 Guinea-Bissau. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Ramkel James put the first mark on the match 27', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Guinea-Bissau led Possession 42%-58%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Guinea-Bissau also shaded Corners 3-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Ethiopia the likeliest result at 40.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guinea-Bissau at 59.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Unibet. The market was offering 7.00 against a fair line of 6.35. That translated to an edge of 10.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Ethiopia

40.5%

Hit

Market result

Guinea-Bissau

59.9%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

51.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Guinea-Bissau

Ethiopia

Guinea-Bissau

42%

58%

Corners

Guinea-Bissau

Ethiopia

Guinea-Bissau

3

4

Total shots

Ethiopia

Ethiopia

Guinea-Bissau

7

6

Model edge

1

Unibet

Market odd

7.00

Fair odd

6.35

Edge

10.2%

Stake

0.35u

That ticket matched the final outcome.