Postmatch editorial

Draw settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Eswatini 3-3 Mauritius. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The late equaliser came from Emmanuel Vincent 90+1', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Eswatini led Corners 3-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Mauritius also shaded Shots on target 3-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Eswatini the likeliest result at 44.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Eswatini at 52.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.8%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 5.75 against a fair line of 5.27. That translated to an edge of 9.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Eswatini

44.0%

Miss

Market result

Eswatini

52.8%

Miss

BTTS

No

57.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Eswatini

Eswatini

Mauritius

3

1

Shots on target

Mauritius

Eswatini

Mauritius

3

4

Possession

Eswatini

Eswatini

Mauritius

57%

43%

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

5.75

Fair odd

5.27

Edge

9.1%

Stake

0.39u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.