Eswatini
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
Angola
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Draw
The final score was Eswatini 2-2 Angola. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Ary Papel 80', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Angola led Shots on target 2-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Angola also shaded Total shots 6-21.
Before kickoff, our model made Angola the likeliest result at 52.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Angola at 65.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (64.1%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.60 against a fair line of 1.56. That translated to an edge of 2.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Angola
52.4%
Market result
Angola
65.4%
BTTS
No
64.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
AngolaEswatini
Angola
2
6
Total shots
AngolaEswatini
Angola
6
21
Corners
AngolaEswatini
Angola
0
8
Model edge
2
Bet365
Market odd
1.60
Fair odd
1.56
Edge
2.6%
Stake
1.18u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.