Postmatch editorial

Israel made the numbers look right

The final score was Estonia 1-3 Israel. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Estonia struck first through Mattias Käit 31', but Israel recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Israel led Shots on target 2-7. Israel also shaded Total shots 8-16.

Before kickoff, our model made Israel the likeliest result at 51.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Israel at 66.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.9%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Israel

51.1%

Hit

Market result

Israel

66.7%

Hit

BTTS

No

50.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Israel

Estonia

Israel

2

7

Total shots

Israel

Estonia

Israel

8

16

Possession

Estonia

Estonia

Israel

53%

47%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.