Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Getafe

The final score was Espanyol 1-2 Getafe. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Domingos Duarte put the first mark on the match 45+3', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Espanyol led Possession 66%-34%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Espanyol also shaded Total shots 15-10.

Before kickoff, our model made Espanyol the likeliest result at 38.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Espanyol at 40.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.2%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Espanyol

38.7%

Miss

Market result

Espanyol

40.5%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

50.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Espanyol

Espanyol

Getafe

66%

34%

Total shots

Espanyol

Espanyol

Getafe

15

10

Corners

Espanyol

Espanyol

Getafe

12

9

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.