Postmatch editorial

Espanyol found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Espanyol 2-0 Athletic Club. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The decisive turn arrived late when Kike García scored 90+2' for Espanyol.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Espanyol led Possession 63%-37%. Espanyol also shaded Shots on target 5-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Athletic Club the likeliest result at 40.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Espanyol at 36.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Interwetten. The market was offering 3.05 against a fair line of 2.88. That translated to an edge of 5.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Athletic Club

40.2%

Miss

Market result

Espanyol

36.4%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

56.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Espanyol

Espanyol

Athletic Club

63%

37%

Shots on target

Espanyol

Espanyol

Athletic Club

5

4

Total shots

Espanyol

Espanyol

Athletic Club

12

11

Model edge

1

Interwetten

Market odd

3.05

Fair odd

2.88

Edge

5.9%

Stake

0.62u

That ticket matched the final outcome.