Equatorial Guinea
Tunisia won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Tunisia
Postmatch editorial
Tunisia settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Equatorial Guinea 0-1 Tunisia. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane scored 90+4' for Tunisia.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Equatorial Guinea led Shots on target 2-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Equatorial Guinea also shaded Total shots 5-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Equatorial Guinea the likeliest result at 38.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Tunisia at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.5%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 4.50 against a fair line of 4.17. That translated to an edge of 7.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Equatorial Guinea
38.0%
Market result
Tunisia
44.4%
BTTS
No
56.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Equatorial GuineaEquatorial Guinea
Tunisia
2
1
Total shots
Equatorial GuineaEquatorial Guinea
Tunisia
5
2
Corners
TunisiaEquatorial Guinea
Tunisia
2
4
Model edge
1
Marathonbet
Market odd
4.50
Fair odd
4.17
Edge
7.9%
Stake
0.50u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.