Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
São Tomé and Príncipe
Postmatch editorial
Equatorial Guinea turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Equatorial Guinea 2-0 São Tomé and Príncipe. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Emilio Nsue put the first mark on the match 14', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Equatorial Guinea led Shots on target 5-1. Equatorial Guinea also shaded Total shots 9-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Equatorial Guinea the likeliest result at 73.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Equatorial Guinea at 87.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (65.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Equatorial Guinea
73.4%
Market result
Equatorial Guinea
87.7%
BTTS
No
65.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Equatorial GuineaEquatorial Guinea
São Tomé and Príncipe
5
1
Total shots
Equatorial GuineaEquatorial Guinea
São Tomé and Príncipe
9
3
Corners
Equatorial GuineaEquatorial Guinea
São Tomé and Príncipe
11
1
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.