Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Malawi
Postmatch editorial
Equatorial Guinea made the numbers look right
The final score was Equatorial Guinea 1-0 Malawi. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Iban Salvador scored 81' for Equatorial Guinea.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Equatorial Guinea led Shots on target 4-1. Equatorial Guinea also shaded Corners 3-1.
Before kickoff, our model made Equatorial Guinea the likeliest result at 43.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Equatorial Guinea at 60.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.5%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 7.00 against a fair line of 6.35. That translated to an edge of 10.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Equatorial Guinea
43.2%
Market result
Equatorial Guinea
60.2%
BTTS
No
54.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Equatorial GuineaEquatorial Guinea
Malawi
4
1
Corners
Equatorial GuineaEquatorial Guinea
Malawi
3
1
Possession
MalawiEquatorial Guinea
Malawi
33%
67%
Model edge
2
Betfair
Market odd
7.00
Fair odd
6.35
Edge
10.2%
Stake
0.35u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.