England
Game ended in draw.
0 - 0
FT
United States
Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was England 0-0 United States. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Neither England nor United States found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: England led Shots on target 3-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. United States also shaded Corners 3-7.
Before kickoff, our model made England the likeliest result at 47.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced England at 67.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Sbo. The market was offering 3.65 against a fair line of 3.42. That translated to an edge of 6.7% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
England
47.8%
Market result
England
67.6%
BTTS
No
51.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
EnglandEngland
United States
3
1
Corners
United StatesEngland
United States
3
7
Total shots
United StatesEngland
United States
8
10
Model edge
1
Sbo
Market odd
3.65
Fair odd
3.42
Edge
6.7%
Stake
1.14u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.