Postmatch editorial

Draw settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Empoli 2-2 Venezia. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The late equaliser came from Tino Anjorin 87', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Venezia led Shots on target 4-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Venezia also shaded Corners 2-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Venezia the likeliest result at 36.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Empoli at 43.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.2%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Venezia

36.4%

Miss

Market result

Empoli

43.5%

Miss

BTTS

No

54.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Venezia

Empoli

Venezia

4

7

Corners

Venezia

Empoli

Venezia

2

5

Total shots

Venezia

Empoli

Venezia

11

13

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.