Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Empoli

The final score was Empoli 2-1 Parma. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The decisive turn arrived late when Tino Anjorin scored 86' for Empoli.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Empoli led Shots on target 4-1. Empoli also shaded Total shots 15-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Parma the likeliest result at 41.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Empoli at 43.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.6%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Parma

41.4%

Miss

Market result

Empoli

43.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Empoli

Empoli

Parma

4

1

Total shots

Empoli

Empoli

Parma

15

3

Corners

Empoli

Empoli

Parma

4

0

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.