Empoli
Hellas Verona won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Hellas Verona
Postmatch editorial
Hellas Verona found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Empoli 1-2 Hellas Verona. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Suat Serdar put the first mark on the match 4', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Empoli led Shots on target 5-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Empoli also shaded Total shots 15-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Empoli the likeliest result at 36.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Empoli at 50.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.4%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Empoli
36.4%
Market result
Empoli
50.8%
BTTS
No
54.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
EmpoliEmpoli
Hellas Verona
5
2
Total shots
EmpoliEmpoli
Hellas Verona
15
5
Corners
EmpoliEmpoli
Hellas Verona
13
1
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.