Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Draw

The final score was Elche 0-0 Osasuna. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Neither Elche nor Osasuna found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Elche led Shots on target 5-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Elche also shaded Total shots 17-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Elche the likeliest result at 40.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Osasuna at 39.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.5%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Elche

40.3%

Miss

Market result

Osasuna

39.3%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

54.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Elche

Elche

Osasuna

5

2

Total shots

Elche

Elche

Osasuna

17

6

Corners

Elche

Elche

Osasuna

10

3

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.