El Salvador
Suriname won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Suriname
Postmatch editorial
Suriname found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was El Salvador 1-2 Suriname. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Dhoraso Klas scored 81' for Suriname.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Suriname led Shots on target 2-4. El Salvador also shaded Corners 7-4.
Before kickoff, our model made El Salvador the likeliest result at 39.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced El Salvador at 44.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.3%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
El Salvador
39.0%
Market result
El Salvador
44.8%
BTTS
No
53.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
SurinameEl Salvador
Suriname
2
4
Corners
El SalvadorEl Salvador
Suriname
7
4
Possession
SurinameEl Salvador
Suriname
46%
54%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.