Postmatch editorial
The pre-match tension never quite broke
The final score was El Salvador 1-1 Suriname. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Justin Lonwijk put the first mark on the match 19', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: El Salvador led Shots on target 3-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. El Salvador also shaded Total shots 9-4.
Before kickoff, our model made El Salvador the likeliest result at 37.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced El Salvador at 46.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.6%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 2.64 against a fair line of 2.51. That translated to an edge of 5.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
El Salvador
37.1%
Market result
El Salvador
46.5%
BTTS
Yes
52.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
El SalvadorEl Salvador
Suriname
3
1
Total shots
El SalvadorEl Salvador
Suriname
9
4
Possession
SurinameEl Salvador
Suriname
33%
67%
Model edge
1
188bet
Market odd
2.64
Fair odd
2.51
Edge
5.2%
Stake
0.77u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.