Postmatch editorial
El Salvador made the numbers look right
The final score was El Salvador 2-0 St. Kitts and Nevis. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Gerson Levi Mayén Villavicencio scored 87' for El Salvador.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: El Salvador led Shots on target 11-3. El Salvador also shaded Corners 5-0.
Before kickoff, our model made El Salvador the likeliest result at 48.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced El Salvador at 95.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.1%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.09 against a fair line of 1.09. That translated to an edge of 0.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
El Salvador
48.3%
Market result
El Salvador
95.2%
BTTS
Yes
60.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
El SalvadorEl Salvador
St. Kitts and Nevis
11
3
Corners
El SalvadorEl Salvador
St. Kitts and Nevis
5
0
Possession
El SalvadorEl Salvador
St. Kitts and Nevis
69%
31%
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.09
Fair odd
1.09
Edge
0.0%
Stake
4.07u
That ticket matched the final outcome.