El Salvador
Panama won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Panama
Postmatch editorial
Panama made the numbers look right
The final score was El Salvador 0-1 Panama. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
José Fajardo put the first mark on the match 55', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: El Salvador led Total shots 10-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Panama also shaded Corners 3-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Panama the likeliest result at 46.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Panama at 60.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.6%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Williamhill. The market was offering 1.80 against a fair line of 1.75. That translated to an edge of 2.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Panama
46.2%
Market result
Panama
60.2%
BTTS
No
57.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
El SalvadorEl Salvador
Panama
10
7
Corners
PanamaEl Salvador
Panama
3
5
Possession
PanamaEl Salvador
Panama
42%
58%
Model edge
2
Williamhill
Market odd
1.80
Fair odd
1.75
Edge
2.9%
Stake
1.03u
That ticket matched the final outcome.