El Salvador
Guatemala won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Guatemala
Postmatch editorial
Guatemala turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was El Salvador 0-1 Guatemala. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Ó. Santis put the first mark on the match 46', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: El Salvador led Corners 3-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. Guatemala also shaded Shots on target 1-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Guatemala the likeliest result at 36.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guatemala at 40.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.3%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 188bet. The market was offering 2.85 against a fair line of 2.70. That translated to an edge of 5.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Guatemala
36.4%
Market result
Guatemala
40.0%
BTTS
No
52.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
El SalvadorEl Salvador
Guatemala
3
0
Shots on target
GuatemalaEl Salvador
Guatemala
1
2
Possession
El SalvadorEl Salvador
Guatemala
58%
42%
Model edge
2
188bet
Market odd
2.85
Fair odd
2.70
Edge
5.6%
Stake
0.66u
That ticket matched the final outcome.