Postmatch editorial
The script held and El Salvador delivered it
The final score was El Salvador 2-0 Grenada. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Gerson Levi Mayén Villavicencio put the first mark on the match 23', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: El Salvador led Shots on target 6-2. El Salvador also shaded Corners 6-1.
Before kickoff, our model made El Salvador the likeliest result at 76.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced El Salvador at 85.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (71.0%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.25 against a fair line of 1.24. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
El Salvador
76.1%
Market result
El Salvador
85.1%
BTTS
No
71.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
El SalvadorEl Salvador
Grenada
6
2
Corners
El SalvadorEl Salvador
Grenada
6
1
Possession
El SalvadorEl Salvador
Grenada
58%
42%
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.25
Fair odd
1.24
Edge
0.8%
Stake
1.96u
That ticket matched the final outcome.